Continuous Planning Cycle (generic process)

From WFM Labs

Continuous Planning Cycle (generic process) is the generic process card, GP-107, for the planning process in which every horizon of a workforce plan runs as a closed loop and each week's variance is routed to the loop whose delay matches its persistence; the method is on Workforce Planning as a Control System. It is part of Process Standardization and sits under the capacity-planning section of the function catalog in Anatomy of a ROC Standard.

The card does not replace the monthly cycle on GP-102 or the weekly reforecast on GP-103. It connects them, and adds three steps the cascade lacks: routing variance, netting the supply line, and keeping the annual plan as a ledger of assumptions. Its structural ancestors are rolling-horizon planning with frozen zones[1] and the stock-management structure of system dynamics, in which a decision rule that ignores what is already on order oscillates,[2] with the service-industry evidence that a temporary capacity gap left to the fast levers erodes the quality standard permanently.[3]

Process profile

The profile extends the L0 identity fields of Process Decomposition (L0–L3). Local values are held by the deploying function and marked SET LOCALLY.

Field Generic value
Card GP-107 · local card id assigned by the standards committee at deployment
Class both, in the catalog's four-class vocabulary (strategic · real-time · both · supporting): the cycle runs at every horizon from the interval to the year
Trigger the weekly close of actuals opens the routing step; the monthly decision week opens the capacity decision; a band breach in the assumption ledger opens a decision at any time; the annual re-base is a dated event
Cadence weekly for routing and the plan-of-record proposal; monthly for the capacity decision and the envelope reset; quarterly for the structural review; annually for the re-base (SET LOCALLY; a persistence window of four weeks and a frozen zone of a third of the pipeline are the values used in the companion simulation [E])
Scope in every pool the function plans; the five loops (interval, short-term, capacity, structural, envelope); the supply line; the assumption ledger; the plan of record and its lineage
Scope out the forecasting method (Three-Step Forecast Build); the interval actions themselves (Real-Time Lever Deployment (generic process)); the hiring process after a requisition is raised; contract negotiation with a partner
Inputs actuals by interval and the forecast with a version on every vintage (Forecast Vintages); the roster and the supply-line stock (decisions committed, requisitions open, offers accepted, classes in training, graduates ramping); the hours-band and contract-band limits; the envelope and authority bands; the definitions register
Outputs the routed variance by lever, weekly; the gap net of the supply line by pool; the plan of record proposed with its lineage to the ledger; band-breach events with owner and persistence; the envelope reset proposal; the structural swing by pool, quarterly
Upstream the enterprise demand forecast; finance's envelope; recruiting's pipeline feed; the definitions register (The Definitions Register)
Downstream GP-102 (receives the routed gap net of the supply line); GP-103 (receives the short-term components); scheduling (the hours-band changes); recruiting (requisitions and class starts); vendor governance (the sized band); finance (the envelope proposal)
Resources the single data model and the semantic layer the loops read (The Data Layer Beneath Continuous Planning); a capacity model that computes the gap net of the supply line; the ledger as a data object; the forum calendar. Platforms are named at L3, never here
Decision points the routing assignment (which loop owns each component); the plan-of-record signature; the band-breach question (is the planned value wrong, or the operation?); the structural question at the pipeline length (band or hire?)
Authority tier routing at the planner tier by rule; the plan of record signed at the function head inside the authority band, escalated to the executive sponsor outside it; a ledger re-set by the assumption's owner; the structural decision at the function head with vendor governance
Risk and compliance flags a plan of record proposed on a forecast without versions cannot be audited; a hiring decision that ignores orders already in the pipeline oscillates (the supply-line misperception of The Supply Line in Capacity Planning); an envelope reset is a financial commitment and follows the finance loop's governance; a frozen zone broken without the change cost recorded is lock erosion
Variant-prone steps the persistence window and the frozen zone (cadence-dependent); the envelope reset (finance calendar); the structural review (contract notice periods); the ledger's tolerance bands (plan sensitivity)
Automation candidates five L2 sub-steps (listed below)

L1 and L2

The L1 flow has six stages, run at different cadences. A deploying function copies the stages into its own L1 and the step table into its L2 through Wiki:Packs/Process Decomposition.

  1. Observe and version. Close the week's actuals; score every open forecast vintage by horizon; update the ledger's current estimates.
  2. Decompose and route. Method on Variance Routing by Horizon.
  3. Net the supply line and propose. Method on The Supply Line in Capacity Planning.
  4. Decide inside the band. Sign the plan of record inside the authority band or escalate; release into the frozen zone; review requisitions on the same cadence. Method on Planning Nervousness and Frozen Zones.
  5. Answer the breach. Method on Assumption Ledgers and the Continuous Annual Plan.
  6. Size the swing and re-base. Quarterly, decide band or hire for the swing that persisted past a pipeline; annually, review the ledger and re-base. Levers on Supply Elasticity Lever Inventory.

The L2 table decomposes each stage into owned, timed sub-steps in the fifteen columns of the convention. The columns the generic page leaves open, marked SET LOCALLY, are the persistence window, the frozen-zone length, the adjustment time, the tolerance band per assumption, the authority band, and the business-day offsets.

Variants

The known variant classes for this process, recorded per Standard and Variant in Process Documentation:

  • Statutory. Where a hiring plan or a reduction must be presented to a works council, stage 4 gains a decision step between the proposal and the release; a variant row, owned by the liaison and approved by the function head.
  • Contractual. Where a partner's contract fixes capacity in blocks with notice, stage 6's band decision is constrained by the notice period; the constraint is a SET LOCALLY value on the structural step, not a variant row, until a band contract exists.
  • Structural. Where no supply-line feed exists, stage 3 nets a hand-built supply line from the recruiting report and the training calendar; a variant row with a review date each cycle until the feed is built.
  • Transitional. A function still running the linear cascade adopts stages 1 and 2 first, read-only, and runs stage 3's gap beside the cascade's own gap for at least one quarter before stage 4 replaces the cascade's decision; a variant row until the standards committee dates the switch.

L3 register

A localizing team writes these job aids against the generic L2; names only, the content is the function's.

Job aid Anchored to Form
The vintage scoring query and the accuracy-by-horizon report stage 1 work instruction
The decomposition arithmetic and the persistence test, with its worksheet stage 2 work instruction
The routing rules: which component to which loop, and the ledger breach stage 2 playbook
The supply-line stock: sources, ramp curve, attrition applied, productive-equivalents stage 3 work instruction
The plan-of-record proposal pack: lineage, authority band, change cost stages 3 to 4 work instruction
The frozen-zone and cancellation rule stage 4 playbook
The breach question and its record stage 5 runbook
The structural swing calculation and the band-or-hire decision, drawing on Supply Elasticity Lever Inventory stage 6 playbook
The re-base checklist stage 6 work instruction
The variance-by-lever report ("which lever carried the variance") stages 2 and 6 work instruction

Automation candidates

Flagged at L2 per the method on Process Decomposition (L0–L3); released per class of action on a published catch rate per Human Gates and Number Grades.

  1. Vintage scoring and the ledger's current estimates (stage 1): deterministic against the semantic layer; the first candidate because its catch rate is a comparison of numbers.
  2. The decomposition and persistence test (stage 2): arithmetic; ranked second because the inputs need an overseer's check before the catch rate means anything.
  3. The routing assignment (stage 2): rule-based; ranked third because the rule itself is reviewed each quarter and a changed rule resets the catch rate.
  4. The gap net of the supply line and the plan-of-record proposal (stage 3): computed and proposed with lineage; ranked fourth because the supply-line stock is the newest data object and its feed must prove stable first.
  5. The breach detection and the envelope reset proposal (stages 5 and 6): computed; ranked last because the breach is rare, so a catch rate takes longest to accumulate.

The signature (stage 4) and the breach answer (stage 5) are never candidates: one is a commitment and the other is a judgement about whether the plan or the operation is wrong.

Maturity Model Position

Four scales on this wiki use the word level; the launch page states which is which. On the WFM Labs Maturity Model™ a function running GP-102 and GP-103 on a published calendar is at Level 2; one that runs stages 1 to 3 of this card read-only beside its cascade is entering Level 3; one that signs the plan of record from stage 3's proposal inside authority bands, with a ledger as a data object and a version on every forecast, is at Level 4: Planning in Distributions; one in which the loops learn from the routed variance without a planner in the path, and the owner is asked only at a breach, is at Level 5: Adaptive Orchestration.

See Also

References

  1. ↑ Blackburn, J. D., Kropp, D. H., Millen, R. A., "A comparison of strategies to dampen nervousness in MRP systems", Management Science 32(4), 1986, pp. 413–429.
  2. ↑ Sterman, J. D., Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, McGraw-Hill, 2000, chapter 17.
  3. ↑ Oliva, R., Sterman, J. D., "Cutting corners and working overtime: quality erosion in the service industry", Management Science 47(7), 2001, pp. 894–914.