Weekly Rolling Reforecast (generic process)

Weekly Rolling Reforecast (generic process) is the generic process card, GP-103, for the weekly cycle by which a workforce function refreshes its short-term forecast on last week's actuals, applies the events and signals that have become known, redistributes the locked month across its weeks and intervals without changing the month's total, and hands the resulting requirement to scheduling. The cadences and the governance of revisions are documented on Reforecast and Rolling Forecast Methodology; the three layers of the short-term build are on Three-Step Forecast Build; the short-term lock and the door a post-lock change goes through are on Forecast Lock Process; the scoring of what was published is GP-106. None of that is restated here. This card carries the operating process, what may change in a week and what may not, with the L0 profile, the variant classes, the L3 job aids and the automation candidates. It is part of Process Standardization and sits under the forecasting section of the function catalog in Anatomy of a ROC Standard.

The weekly refresh is where a forecaster reading an unexpectedly heavy week is most tempted to revise the engine's output by hand. The evidence on judgmental adjustment is that small adjustments add little or reduce accuracy, and that upward adjustments are more often harmful than downward ones. The process below is therefore built so that every departure from the engine is a logged layer with a stated reason, so that a week already past its lock cannot be rewritten, and so that the month's total cannot be changed from inside the week.

Process profile

The profile extends the L0 identity fields of Process Decomposition (L0–L3) with the process-level facts a standards committee needs before any step is drawn. Local values are held by the deploying function and marked SET LOCALLY.

Field	Generic value
Card	GP-103 · local card id assigned by the standards committee at deployment
Class	both, in the catalog's four-class vocabulary (strategic · real-time · both · supporting): it consumes a strategic lock and feeds the real-time steer
Trigger	the weekly calendar: the cycle opens on the first business day after the prior week's actuals close (SET LOCALLY)
Cadence	weekly; the horizon is the next two to six weeks by interval [A] (SET LOCALLY); the short-term lock sits at a published offset before the first shift it protects
Scope in	the short-term forecast by interval for every client portfolio in scope; handle time by client portfolio; the event overlay and the accepted signals; the redistribution inside the locked month; the version and its vintage; the hand-off to scheduling and real time
Scope out	the month's total (GP-102 and the mid-term door); the intraday reforecast (GP-104); the accuracy review (GP-106); the schedule build itself (GP-201); lever decisions (GP-302)
Inputs	last week's actuals at the register's definitions; the locked month; the forecast of record (last week's vintage); the collision calendar; the week's intelligence signals; the lock calendar; the adjustment threshold table (SET LOCALLY)
Outputs	the new short-term vintage with every layer stored; the requirement by interval for the scheduling window; the adjustment log (reason, size, signer); the variance log for any post-lock change; the hand-off note to scheduling and real time
Upstream	GP-102 (the locked month); the collision calendar; the intelligence feed; the real-time function's variance notes from last week
Downstream	scheduling (the maintenance window, overtime and voluntary-time-off planning); the real-time function (the forecast the intraday steer is measured against); GP-106 (scoring)
Resources	the short-term forecasting engine; the vintage store; the collision calendar; the adjustment log; the hand-off channel. Platforms are named at L3, never here
Decision points	has the engine's update left the noise band of the record? does an overlay or signal apply this week? is a week already past its lock moment? does an adjustment exceed the threshold? does the redistribution change the month? is the version released?
Authority tier	tier 1 (forecaster) builds and makes adjustments inside the threshold; tier 2, the planner who owns the client portfolio, signs an adjustment above the threshold, a variance on a locked week, and the lock itself; a change to the month's total is not a decision of this process but a variance to the mid-term door's owner as printed in the lock calendar
Risk and compliance flags	a recency-driven upward edit; a layer merged into the published number and lost to scoring; a late release that pushes schedule changes inside a statutory notice window; a forecaster who is also the approver, the separation Reforecast and Rolling Forecast Methodology requires
Variant-prone steps	the release day relative to the schedule-publication notice; the partner hand-off views; client portfolios on a different weekly close; client portfolios without interval-level actuals
Automation candidates	seven L2 sub-steps (five ranks), listed below

L1 flow

One owner per step; owners are seats. The three decisions that protect what is locked are steps 8, 9 and 10.

1. Close the week's actuals: confirm volume, handle time and shrinkage are complete at the register's definitions and graded (data steward).
2. Score last week's vintage against actuals by layer and record the scores for GP-106 (forecaster).
3. Refresh the baseline: re-fit the engine on the new actuals and produce the statistical update for the horizon (forecaster).
4. Decision: has the update left the noise band of the forecast of record (SET LOCALLY)? If no, carry the record forward; if yes, take the update as the new baseline (forecaster).
5. Apply the event overlay: read the collision calendar for every event whose effect window touches the horizon and apply each with its grade (forecaster).
6. Review the week's signals; each accepted signal becomes an adjustment with a stated source (forecaster).
7. Reforecast handle time by client portfolio on the same horizon, separately from volume (forecaster).
8. Decision: is any week in the horizon past its lock moment? If yes, a change to that week is not an edit but a variance in the variance log, signed by the planner who owns the client portfolio; if no, proceed (forecaster).
9. Decision: does any adjustment exceed the threshold? If yes, a documented reason and the planner's signature; if no, log it and proceed (forecaster).
10. Decision: does the week's redistribution change the locked month's total? If yes, stop and raise a variance to the mid-term door's owner as printed in the lock calendar; if no, proceed (forecaster).
11. Compute the requirement by interval for the horizon on the register's shrinkage and occupancy (forecaster).
12. Planner gate: review the version and produce a decision per client portfolio, accept or amend with reason (planner).
13. Lock and release: the planner who owns the client portfolio signs the lock at the short-term lock moment; the vintage is stamped with its layers and released to scheduling and the real-time function with the hand-off note (planner).
14. Hand-off confirmation: acknowledge the release and state which maintenance actions the delta triggers, while the ROC duty lead records the forecast the intraday steer will be measured against (scheduling lead).
15. Close the week: close the adjustment and variance logs and note the lessons for GP-106 (forecaster).

L2 step table

Generic sub-steps only; the deploying function adds the columns Process Decomposition (L0–L3) leaves open. Durations are typical [A], SET LOCALLY.

Step	Sub-step	Owner (seat)	Inputs	Outputs	Duration	Automation candidate	Documentation join key
1	1.1 Run the completeness and grade check on last week's actuals	data steward	the source feeds	the closed week	2 h	Y	actuals close checklist
2	2.1 Score last week's vintage by layer	forecaster	the vintage, actuals	the layer scores	1 h	Y	layer scoring template
3	3.1 Re-fit the engine and produce the update	forecaster	the closed week, the record	the statistical update	1 h	Y	engine run instruction
4	4.1 Test the update against the noise band; carry or replace	forecaster	the update, the record, the band	the baseline	30 min	Y	noise band table
5	5.1 List events whose window touches the horizon; apply each with its grade	forecaster	the collision calendar	the overlay layer	1 h	Y	overlay instruction
6	6.1 Review signals; accept or reject each with a source	forecaster	the intelligence feed	the signal layer, the log	1 h	N	signal review log
7	7.1 Update handle time by client portfolio	forecaster	handle-time actuals, drivers	the handle-time layer	1 h	N	handle-time instruction
8	8.1 Test each week in the horizon against the lock calendar	forecaster	the version, the lock calendar	open or locked weeks	15 min	N	lock calendar
8	8.2 Enter any change to a locked week in the variance log and sign it	planner	the change, its reason and size	the variance entry	same day	N	variance form
9	9.1 Test each adjustment against the threshold	forecaster	the adjustment log, the threshold table	inside or above	15 min	N	adjustment reason form
9	9.2 Document the reason and sign	planner	the adjustment above threshold	the signed adjustment	same day	N	adjustment reason form
10	10.1 Sum the horizon's weeks against the locked month	forecaster	the version, the locked month	inside or breach	15 min	N	month-breach runbook
10	10.2 Raise a variance to the mid-term door's owner	forecaster	the breach, its reason and size	the variance entry	same day	N	month-breach runbook
11	11.1 Compute the requirement by interval	forecaster	the version, the register	the requirement	30 min	Y	requirement instruction
12	12.1 Review per client portfolio; produce accept or amend with reason	planner	the version, the logs	the gate record	same day	N	planner gate pack
13	13.1 Sign the lock; stamp the vintage with its layers	planner	the gated version	the locked vintage	15 min	N	lock pack
13	13.2 Assemble and send the hand-off note, with partner views where contracted	forecaster	the vintage, the requirement	the hand-off note	30 min	Y	hand-off note template
14	14.1 Acknowledge and state the maintenance actions triggered	scheduling lead	the hand-off note	the acknowledgement	same day	N	hand-off note template
14	14.2 Record the forecast of record for the intraday steer	ROC duty lead	the hand-off note	the steer baseline	same day	N	hand-off note template
15	15.1 Close the logs and note lessons	forecaster	the logs	the closed week	30 min	N	weekly close checklist

Variants

The known variant classes for this process, recorded per Standard and Variant in Process Documentation:

• Statutory. A jurisdiction whose schedule-change notice period, with predictability pay for later changes, forces an earlier release day changes a parameter of step 13 and is SET LOCALLY. A jurisdiction where a works council must be informed weekly of forecast-driven schedule changes inserts a notification step after step 13 and takes a variant row, owned by the works-council liaison.
• Contractual. A partner contract that fixes a weekly forecast delivery in the operational view of Forecast Lock Process parameterizes the hand-off (13.2); SET LOCALLY, no variant row.
• Structural. A client portfolio with no interval-level actuals, such as an asynchronous channel, is reforecast at daily resolution; steps 3 and 11 are varied under a row with a review date. A client portfolio on a different weekly close changes only the calendar offset, a parameter.
• Transitional. A unit from a predecessor organization whose engine cannot store layers keeps a variant row until platform cut-over; its automation effect reads blocks against ranks 2 and 3 for that unit.

L3 register

A localizing team writes these job aids against the generic L2; names only, the content is the function's. The noise band, the adjustment threshold and the release offset are L3 values marked SET LOCALLY in the L2 row.

Job aid	Anchored to	Form
The weekly calendar: close, build, gate, lock and release offsets	steps 1, 8, 12 and 13	work instruction
The actuals close checklist and grade rules	step 1	work instruction
The noise band and adjustment threshold table	steps 4 and 9	work instruction
The engine run instruction	step 3	work instruction; method on Three-Step Forecast Build
The overlay instruction against the collision calendar	step 5	work instruction
The signal review log and acceptance rule	step 6	playbook
The variance form for a locked week	step 8	work instruction; the door on Forecast Lock Process
The adjustment reason form and the separation of builder and approver	step 9	work instruction
The planner gate pack: what the planner sees and must produce	step 12	work instruction
The hand-off note template, with the partner views	steps 13 and 14	work instruction
The month-breach exception path	step 10	runbook

Automation candidates

Flagged at L2 per the method on Process Decomposition (L0–L3); released per class of action on a published catch rate per Human Gates and Number Grades, never on a maturity label. The list is ordered by how easy a catch rate is to publish, and every row marked Y above appears in it.

1. The actuals close check (1.1): a deterministic completeness test against the register; first because every miss is visible the same week.
2. Layer scoring of last week's vintage (2.1): computed once actuals close; it ranks after the close check because its result is only as good as the close it depends on.
3. The statistical update and the noise-band test (3.1, 4.1): engine output, released on the earned-learning rule of Forecast Value Added in Workforce Management, so that a client portfolio's update replaces the record only where it has beaten the record before; it ranks after scoring because that rule needs several weeks of layer scores before a catch rate exists.
4. The event overlay (5.1): deterministic given each event's effect window and grade; it ranks after the update because a wrong overlay is only caught when the event's week is scored, not the week it is applied.
5. The requirement computation and the hand-off packet (11.1, 13.2): computed and assembled; last because an error here is caught by scheduling's acknowledgement rather than by a published rate of its own.

The lock (13.1) is never a candidate: it is a signature. The planner gate (12.1) is not a candidate except under the earned auto-approval rule of Forecast Value Added in Workforce Management, applied per client portfolio, where a proposal that moves the forecast by less than a published tolerance and has a published record against the forecast of record may pass without individual review. Signal acceptance (6.1) is not yet a candidate; it may become one, per client portfolio, once the feed's catch rate is published. The rule that the week may redistribute but not breach the month is the time-fence logic of master scheduling, where the frozen zone is sized to the lead time it protects.

Maturity Model Position

Four scales on this wiki use the word level; the launch page states which is which. On the WFM Labs Maturity Model™ a function that refreshes weekly on a published calendar, stores each version and logs every adjustment with a reason is at Level 2; one that has released ranks 1 to 3 above on a published catch rate and scores every layer is at Level 3; one whose weekly version is proposed by the agent team of The Short-Term Forecasting Loop with an Agent Team and passes the planner gate as a proposal is at Level 4.

See Also

• Process Standardization — the hub and the inventory this card belongs to
• Reforecast and Rolling Forecast Methodology — cadences, triggers and the governance of revisions
• Three-Step Forecast Build — the short-term step and its three layers
• Forecast Lock Process — the short-term lock and the door after it
• Forecast Collision Calendar — the events the overlay reads
• Monthly Capacity Planning Cycle (generic process) — the lock this process works inside
• Intraday Reforecast (generic process) — the next horizon down
• Forecast Accuracy Governance (generic process) — where the layer scores go
• Forecast Vintages — how the stored versions are kept
• Standard and Variant in Process Documentation — how the variants above are recorded
• Wiki:Packs/Process Decomposition — the pack that localizes this card (CP-OPS-001)